602030 lipo battery.Upstream hopes for price increases, but downstream does not buy it. How can the lithium industry maintain balance?

　　Qarhan Salt Lake Photography/Battery Network Yu Qingjiao

　　From 150,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year, it has dropped to about 80,000 yuan per ton now. Where will the price of lithium carbonate go? On December 13, the 4th China Lithium Resources Strategy Seminar was held in Beijing. Faced with drastic changes in the industry situation, upstream lithium resource supply giants such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium and downstream material vendors such as Dangsheng Technology jointly discussed The way out is, “Let’s make the industry’s cake bigger together.”

　　Although the sales of new energy vehicles are quite hot, upstream resource companies and materials companies are feeling the pressure. According to Chen Quanxun, president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, since the beginning of this year, with the rapid expansion of production capacity, major links in the industrial chain such as primary raw materials such as lithium salts, ternary material precursors, and lithium battery manufacturing have all experienced periodic oversupply. . Especially after the "6·12 New Deal", the market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped sharply. The current price is around 80,000 yuan/ton, down more than 50% from the beginning of the year.

　　The price has dropped by half this year. How do you think the situation will be next year? In the high-level dialogue session, Zhang Jiangfeng, secretary-general of the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, invited relevant leaders of domestic lithium material industry giants such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yahua Group to the stage to "confront" them. It is Wang Xiaoming, deputy general manager of Dangsheng Technology, a downstream buyer.

　　As the leader of the domestic lithium industry, Tianqi Lithium has been relatively "calm" about prices, at least in public. Xu Xiangliang, sales director of Tianqi Lithium Industry, said: "The price of 80,000 is still acceptable."

　　Ganfeng Lithium Industry is relatively optimistic about the market prospects. Liu Ming, the company's vice president, believes that although the industry has short-term oversupply, considering costs and other aspects, "around 100,000 yuan per ton is more appropriate, and the price is expected to increase next year." The relevant person in charge of Ruifu Lithium Industry also believes that there is little room for further price decline. Since April this year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate once fell to 73,000 yuan, and is currently generally above 80,000 yuan. There has been some improvement. pick up.

　　"They have been very happy in the past two years, and everyone knows the various costs. Even at the current price, the profit is still quite good." As a downstream buyer, Wang Xiaoming, deputy general manager of Dangsheng Technology, naturally has a completely different view, " I hope that everyone will stop focusing on how to make money and make money comfortably, and instead focus on how to make this market bigger and better from the perspective of industry development."

　　Wang Xiaoming said that the long-term development of the industry cannot always rely on policy subsidies, and unless the cost of raw materials is reduced to a certain level, electric vehicles will not be able to compete head-on with fuel vehicles. Wang Xiaoming also gave an agency’s estimate of the lithium salt price range, ranging from 50,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan per ton.

　　Technological progress has provided conditions for further decline in lithium product prices. "Our country has made a very remarkable breakthrough this year, that is, Qinghai's lithium extraction technology has achieved industrial production after long-term research." Academician Zheng Mianping of the Chinese Academy of Engineering said in an interview with a reporter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange that China's lithium salt processing raw materials are highly dependent on external sources, and lithium The production cost is also much higher than in South America. We must make a fuss about comprehensive utilization and strengthen the development of lithium-containing deep brine.

　　Chen Quanxun also reminded that in the past few years, against the backdrop of continued growth in demand and rising prices, the scale of the domestic lithium industry has expanded rapidly. Last year, the Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association conducted a large number of surveys, showing that lithium carbonate, ternary material precursors, etc. have already experienced over-investment problems. The association also issued an early warning, hoping that the industry would invest rationally, avoid risks, and prevent a Coax up. Now that prices are falling, some mid- to low-end lithium salt primary raw materials, lithium carbonate, ternary material precursors, etc. are gradually losing their competitiveness.

　　However, industry giants are still expanding further in the hope of occupying a more favorable position in future competition. Xu Xiangliang said that by the end of 2020, Tianqi’s lithium salt production capacity will reach 100,000 tons (metal equivalent). A 20,000-ton project of Yahua Group is under construction and is expected to reach 38,000 tons by the end of next year. A 30,000-ton project of Ruifu Lithium has just been launched, with plans for 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide and 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate.

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