CR927 battery.Study shows lithium-ion battery prices still falling but lower than expected

　　Research firm Navigant recently released the latest survey data on "Pricing Trends in Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage Systems." By 2030, lithium-ion battery prices may drop from the current US$139/kWh to US$76/kWh.

　　Alex Eller, senior research analyst at the company, said that while this survey report can provide insight into a range of energy storage technology developments, the real concern is lithium-ion batteries used in grid-scale energy storage systems.

　　Eller said, "Lithium-ion battery prices will continue to fall in 2019, but due to supply shortages, the price decline in 2018 is much lower than expected. Overall, our long-term forecast of lithium-ion price declines is more conservative than other research institutions. However, we believe that lithium-ion battery prices may still fall less than expected as rapid growth in battery demand leads to tight supplies of finished batteries and key materials."

　　In March this year, Logan Goldie-Scott, head of energy storage analysis at Bloomberg New Finance, said that the average cost of lithium-ion batteries could be as low as $62/kWh by 2030, but he noted that some analysis companies may underestimate the price of lithium-ion batteries. .

　　Goldie-Scott wrote in the blog, "Different cell and battery pack designs, cell materials, economies of scale, and regional environments create a range of differences in the battery market. In addition, if battery deployment is much higher than expected, it will affect its average price. creating further downward pressure."

　　Renewable energy integration requires massive energy storage systems

　　Eller, meanwhile, said that overall, despite the warnings, his team's modeling expects lithium-ion battery prices to continue to fall. "We expect lithium-ion battery prices to fall from an average of $139 per kWh in 2019 to $76 per kWh in 2028, which itself will be a major driver of price declines for grid-scale energy storage projects," he said.

　　Eller said that through modeling of 10MW/5MWh, 10MW/10MWh, and 10MW/40MWh grid-scale energy storage systems, Navigant found that the longer the continuous discharge time, the higher the price of the energy storage system due to the increase in components.

　　"For example, the current average price of a 10MW/40MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system is approximately US$15.8 million, which is expected to drop to US$9.8 million by 2028," he said.

　　At the same time, IDTechX, a UK-based market research organization, released a research report on "Stationary Battery Energy Storage Systems 2019-2029", which introduced the countries and regions leading the development of the global energy storage market and predicted the forecasts for these markets in the next 10 years. annual development.

　　IDTechX said that a survey showed that a total of 6GWh of fixed energy storage equipment was deployed globally in 2018. 2018 was a year of extraordinary development for energy storage deployment. He also emphasized that even the 129MWh battery energy storage system deployed by Tesla in South Australia will be dwarfed by the large-scale projects deployed by energy storage suppliers in the future.

　　IDTechX said last year that the United States was emerging as the energy storage market leader due to policy-driven developments in major markets such as California, while South Korea and China both deployed more than 1GWh of energy storage systems annually.

　　The company said that some problems have arisen during the rapid development of energy storage deployment. For example, in 2018, fires broke out in multiple energy storage systems deployed in South Korea.

　　A statement released by the company said: "Despite some problems, countries and regions that vigorously develop renewable energy will still need to deploy large amounts of energy storage systems."

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